Better than forecastWorse than forecast, or hotter inflationCentral bank rate
Colour shows the surprise against forecast. It is context, not a trade signal.
Week of 9–13 November 2026
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Bond Markets · USD
Bond Yields Climb as Hot Inflation Meets a Hawkish Fed
US government bond yields rose sharply this week, and the move set the tone for the dollar and for the rest of the market. A hotter than expected inflation report arrived on Tuesday, Federal Reserve officials spent the days that followed talking about further rate rises, and the Treasury's refunding auctions drew softer demand than last month. The shorter end moved most: reports put the two-year yield up about 35 basis points on the week, its biggest weekly rise in more than two years, and the 10-year yield reached 5.17% on Friday.
US Core CPI m/m
Actual
0.3%
What Moved Yields This Week
- Inflation beat forecasts again. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October against 0.3% expected, and core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3% against 0.2%. Energy was still rising, up 0.7% after a 5.2% jump in September, and shelter and food added to the total. No annual rate was published because October 2025 prices were never collected during last year's government shutdown. The last annual figure, for September, was 3.7%.
- Producer prices were cooler. The PPI rose 0.3% on the month against 0.4% expected, and core PPI rose 0.3%, in line. The 10-year yield was at 5.17% on Friday as traders weighed the report.
- Fed officials backed the repricing. Governor Waller said before the CPI release that a core reading near 0.3% or higher could put a half-point hike on the table. Dallas Fed President Logan signalled at least two more quarter-point rises, New York Fed President Williams said there was "work to do", and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee was also reported to be open to tightening. Daly said it was hard to say policy was restrictive enough, and Collins said additional firming was appropriate soon. Markets now price a quarter-point hike at the 8–9 December meeting, with a half-point move seen as a minority outcome (about 11%, per Bloomberg data reported on 11 November).
- Treasury auctions showed soft demand. The $125 billion refunding opened with a 3-year sale (bid-to-cover 2.53), then the 10-year cleared at 5.02% (2.46) and the 30-year at 5.44% (2.36, below the six-auction average of 2.44). Primary dealers took 11.4% of the 30-year against 6.8% last time, which investors read as weaker end demand, and the sale priced about 0.4 basis points above the pre-auction level. Both yields were lower than October's auctions (5.30% and 5.62%), but only because bond prices had rallied in the weeks between.
- The dollar gained. The dollar index was reported up about 0.7% on the week, its best week since early October, as traders priced a more aggressive Fed.
Elsewhere, 30-year auctions cleared at 5.54% in the UK (against 5.52% last time), 3.66% in Germany (3.80%) and 3.85% in Japan (4.11%).
For bias purposes, the week gave the dollar a clear policy-driven bid: inflation data that ran hot, Fed officials willing to discuss a larger move, and a bond market that priced it. The front end moved furthest, which points more to a change in Fed expectations than to a scare over long-term debt, although the soft 30-year auction shows that demand for long bonds was thinner too.
Growth · GBP
UK Growth Beat Forecasts, With AI Doing the Heavy Lifting
The UK economy grew 0.7% in the third quarter, the Office for National Statistics reported on Thursday, the strongest quarter since early 2024. The quarterly figure matched forecasts, but September's monthly number beat expectations of no growth. It arrived a week after the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4.00%.
UK Prelim GDP q/q
Actual
0.7%
Where the Growth Came From
- September beat again. Monthly GDP rose 0.2% after a flat August, and Pantheon's Rob Wood noted that it has now beaten consensus for five months in a row. Annual growth picked up to 1.9%.
- Technology did most of the work. The ONS said computer programming and consultancy was the largest driver of GDP growth across 2026, and services output rose 0.9% in the quarter. It pointed to "widespread strength in industries which may be related to artificial intelligence", while noting the effect is hard to measure.
- Factories joined in. Manufacturing output rose 0.9% over the three months to September, led by a 4.6% rise in computers, electronics and optical products. In September alone, industrial production rose 0.3% against a 0.4% fall expected, and manufacturing rose 0.7% against a 0.5% fall expected.
- The weak spots were construction, trade and housing. Construction output fell 0.7% over the quarter. The goods trade deficit widened to £22.3 billion against £19.2 billion expected, and the RICS house price balance fell to -36% against -33% expected.
- The Bank of England had already moved. Last week's hike came with a higher growth forecast for 2026 of 1.6%, up from 1.1%, which the Bank linked to AI-related investment. Reuters reported investors pricing a 73% chance of a December hike after the data.
For bias purposes, the data fits a Bank of England that has begun tightening: growth strong enough not to argue against it. The caveat is breadth, because the strength was concentrated in technology and sat alongside a wider goods trade deficit and weaker housing sentiment.
Quick Hits · Global
Quick Hits: Around the World
China · CNY
Factory-gate prices ran hot while consumer prices stayed soft. Producer prices rose 5.7% from a year earlier against 5.3% expected, with oil and gas extraction prices up 6% on the month, while consumer prices rose 0.7% against 0.8% expected. Trade was strong: exports rose 35.2% and imports 41.6%, helped by a recovery in crude shipments from the Gulf, taking the October surplus to $105.3 billion and the year-to-date total past $1 trillion for a second year running. New yuan loans fell by 100 billion against an 80 billion rise expected.
China New Loans
Actual
-100B
Japan · JPY
Prices at the factory gate rose 7.1% from a year earlier against 6.5% expected, while household spending fell 6.8% against a 3.1% fall expected. A 30-year bond auction cleared at 3.85% against 4.11% last time.
Eurozone and Switzerland · EUR & CHF
Eurozone third-quarter growth was confirmed at 0.4%, in line, while employment growth of 0.0% undershot the 0.2% expected. German consumer prices fell 0.2% on the month, as forecast, and Swiss producer prices rose 0.9% on the month against 0.2% expected.
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence
Actual
2.4
Australia and New Zealand · AUD & NZD
Australian consumer sentiment from Westpac fell 2.7% after a 4.7% fall the month before, and the RBA's Assistant Governor Hunter spoke on Monday. In New Zealand, the BusinessNZ manufacturing index eased to 54.9 from 56.3, and visitor arrivals rose 2.6% against a 3.0% rise last time.
Australia NAB Business Confidence
Actual
-15
Canada · CAD
Building permits fell 4.1% on the month against 4.0% expected, after a 7.6% rise. Wholesale sales rose 0.7% against 0.5% expected, and manufacturing sales were flat against a 0.1% rise expected.
Canada Building Permits m/m
Actual
-4.1%
United States, Other Data · USD
Weekly jobless claims rose to 200,000 against 194,000 expected. Existing home sales fell to 3.75 million against 3.89 million expected, and small business optimism from the NFIB slipped to 97.8. Crude oil inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels against a 0.6 million fall expected. The federal budget deficit for October was $404.1 billion against $298.6 billion expected, in a week when the Treasury sold $125 billion of bonds.
US Unemployment Claims
Actual
200K
In Other News · Politics & Policy
In Other News
The stories that did not fit a theme this week but shaped the backdrop.
- New Zealand's election left no clear winner. In the preliminary count, the National, ACT and New Zealand First bloc won 67 of 131 seats against 57 for Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, with the new Opportunity Party holding the balance on 7. About 400,000 special votes, which tend to lean left, are still being counted. Final results are due on 27 November, and Christopher Luxon leads a caretaker government until then.
- The G7 foreign ministers met in Paris. Their joint statement on 11 November called for a full ceasefire in Ukraine and condemned Iran's disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, backing free passage through it.
- The Bank of Canada said more hikes might be needed. Its summary of deliberations on the 28 October decision, a quarter-point rise to 2.5%, said members will decide "one meeting at a time". The Bank now expects inflation to reach 3.5% by the end of 2026 and stay above 3% for much of 2027.
- Bank of Japan members were split on the pace. The summary of opinions from the October meeting showed one member saying faster hikes are needed and another saying the policy rate should reach neutral soon, while a third preferred to maintain policy a little longer to assess the risks.
- Trade talks between the US and China. A two-month extension of the trade truce runs to January, and reports say trade will be on the agenda when Presidents Trump and Xi meet at the APEC summit in Shenzhen next week.
Put the Recap to Work
- Central Bank Hub shows where each major central bank stands and what the market expects next.
- COT Report shows how leveraged funds are positioned in the major currencies.
- Seasonal Bias shows how these pairs have tended to behave through the year.
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This recap summarises publicly reported economic data and central bank communications for the stated week. It is general information, not financial advice, and looks backwards only, so it makes no predictions. Combine it with your own bias work (COT positioning, central bank direction, seasonal tendency) before drawing any conclusions. Read the full disclaimer and risk warning.