Why This Matters

Interest rates are the price of money — and every currency pair is really a bet on which central bank is paying more for it. When a bank hikes, holds, or cuts, or even just shifts its tone, global capital repositions to chase the better return, and that flow is what moves the pair on your chart.

The rate decision itself is only half the story. Every one of these eight banks also publishes a quarterly forecast document — the Fed's dot plot (Summary of Economic Projections), the ECB's staff macroeconomic projections, and the monetary policy reports most other central banks release alongside their decisions. That's where the real forward guidance lives — growth and inflation projections, the balance of risks, hints at what the committee does next — and it's often what moves markets days or weeks before the next headline decision even lands.

Understanding monetary policy is part of the job of being a trader — it's not background reading, it's fundamental to your edge. Knowing what a bank has already signalled, and what the market is pricing in, is what lets you form a view ahead of the next decision instead of reacting to the headline after it's already moved the pair. Combine that with the COT Report and Seasonal Bias, and it becomes a real directional edge, not a guess.

Eight Major Banks
BoE
Bank of England
Hawkish
RBA
Reserve Bank of Australia
Neutral
BoC
Bank of Canada
Neutral
RBNZ
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Hawkish
SNB
Swiss National Bank
Neutral
BoJ
Bank of Japan
Hawkish
ECB
European Central Bank
Neutral
Fed
Federal Reserve (FOMC)
Neutral
Upcoming Meetings
RBA
Aug 5, 2026
Rate decision + statement
Bank of England
Sep 17, 2026
MPC vote + Monetary Policy Report
Bank of Canada
Sep 2, 2026
Rate decision
RBNZ
Sep 2, 2026
OCR decision + MPS
ECB
Sep 11, 2026
Rate decision + Lagarde presser
Fed (FOMC)
Sep 15–16, 2026
Rate decision + press conference
SNB
Sep 18, 2026
Quarterly policy assessment
Bank of Japan
Sep 19, 2026
Policy rate + outlook report
Latest Policy Summaries
🇬🇧
Bank of England
July 2026
Hawkish
Rate Decision
3.75%
— Held (6–3 vote)
Tone
Hawkish hold. Three dissenters voted to hike to 4.00%. Services inflation at 3.7% keeping MPC cautious. CPI projected to peak at 3.2% in Q4 2026 — risks tilted to the upside from Middle East energy shock.
Bias Implication
GBP bullish. Most hawkish split since hiking cycle — 6-3 signals hike to 4.00% is live at September. Market pricing Bank Rate rising toward 4.2% by H2 2027. Favour GBP against CAD and EUR.
Next Meeting
17 Sep 2026 — MPC vote + Monetary Policy Report. Hike to 4.00% very much on the table. Watch services CPI and wage data.
🇦🇺
Reserve Bank of Australia
September 2025
Neutral
Rate Decision
3.85%
— Held
Tone
Neutral. Cautious on inflation progress. Labour market remains resilient.
Bias Implication
AUD neutral to mildly supported. Cuts possible in 2026 — watch CPI data for directional shift.
Next Meeting
5 Aug 2026 — Rate decision + statement. Key watch: Q2 CPI print ahead of meeting.
🇨🇦
Bank of Canada
July 2026
Neutral
Rate Decision
2.25%
— Held (6th consecutive)
Tone
Neutral. Classic "do no harm" stance — weak economy argues for cuts but inflation at 3.2% (above 3% upper target) prevents them. Unemployment at 6.5%.
Bias Implication
CAD neutral to bearish. No catalyst for CAD strength — economy fragile, cuts remain on the table for later 2026. Favour fading CAD rallies against USD and GBP.
Next Meeting
2 Sep 2026 — Rate decision. Cut possible if labour market softens or inflation surprises to the downside.
🇳🇿
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
July 2026
Hawkish
Rate Decision
2.50%
▲ Hiked 25 bps
Tone
Hawkish. Consensus hike to return inflation to 2% target. Inflation peaked at 3.9% in June quarter, easing to 3.3% by September. Further tightening likely required.
Bias Implication
NZD bullish. Hiking cycle underway — further hikes expected September and December 2026. Favour NZD strength against USD and EUR.
Next Meeting
2 Sep 2026 — Full Monetary Policy Statement. Another 25 bps hike widely expected if data holds.
🇨🇭
Swiss National Bank
September 2025
Neutral
Rate Decision
1.25%
— Held
Tone
Neutral. Cautious on CHF strength. Inflation remains well under control.
Bias Implication
CHF neutral. SNB may intervene if CHF strengthens significantly. Monitor EUR/CHF for signals.
Next Meeting
18 Sep 2026 — Quarterly policy assessment. CHF intervention risk remains the key variable.
🇯🇵
Bank of Japan
July 2026
Hawkish
Rate Decision
1.00%
— Held (8–1 vote)
Tone
Hawkish hold. Pausing to assess June hike impact. Dissenter Takata voted to hike to 1.25%. BoJ warned core inflation likely to accelerate "clearly above" 2% from Sep 2026 — driven by wage pass-through, energy, and yen weakness. Growth outlook slightly upgraded. Suspected government yen intervention Thursday night.
Bias Implication
JPY bullish. Hiking cycle intact — Ueda press conference viewed as mildly hawkish by strategists, with some expecting an earlier next hike. Intervention risk keeping yen supported. Favour JPY strength against USD and AUD. USD/JPY has already broken well above the old ¥155 line, printing 40-year highs near ¥164 in the past week — watch ¥163–165 for further verbal intervention or rate checks from the MoF/BoJ.
Next Meeting
19 Sep 2026 — Policy rate + outlook report. Hike to 1.25% possible — watch core CPI and wage data. Takata's lone dissent signals internal pressure building.
🇪🇺
European Central Bank
July 2026
Neutral
Rate Decision
2.25%
— Held
Tone
Neutral — wait and see. Pausing after June's hike to assess Middle East war impact. Energy prices volatile but close to June baseline. Full inflationary impact of the energy shock yet to play out. No pre-commitment to rate path.
Bias Implication
EUR neutral. Hold after June hike signals caution — not yet done tightening but data-dependent. Watch EUR/USD 1.10. Another hike at September meeting possible if energy-driven inflation accelerates.
Next Meeting
11 Sep 2026 — Rate decision + Lagarde presser. Key watch: energy price trajectory and core HICP. Hike back on table if inflation re-accelerates.
🇺🇸
Federal Reserve (FOMC)
July 2026
Neutral
Rate Decision
3.50–3.75%
— Held (9–3 vote)
Tone
Neutral to hawkish. Three dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) voted to hike. Chair Warsh keeping statements short — no forward guidance. Economy expanding solidly despite Middle East uncertainty. 9 of 19 officials still see at least one hike in 2026.
Bias Implication
USD neutral to supported. Higher-for-longer narrative holding — hike risk building for September. Markets pricing ~41% chance of hold in September. Watch Warsh at Jackson Hole Aug 27–29 for next policy signal.
Next Meeting
15–16 Sep 2026 — Rate decision + press conference. Jackson Hole (Aug 27–29) is the key event before then. Hike probability rising.