A plain-language look at last week's key market events. What happened, why it mattered — no predictions, no noise. Updated every weekend.
Friday's US jobs report was the single biggest surprise of the past month. Non-farm payrolls jumped 162,000 in August — the strongest gain in five months — against a forecast of just 55,000, more than triple what economists expected.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, exactly as expected, but the real story was underneath: June and July were revised up by a combined 55,000, and July's headline-grabbing negative print from a month ago — the one that kicked off weeks of "the US labour market is cracking" coverage — was revised from -23,000 all the way to +21,000. It didn't just improve. It flipped from a decline to a genuine gain.
For bias purposes: this report meaningfully raises the odds the Fed leans hawkish rather than dovish at its September meeting, and pushes back against the "the US economy is cooling fast" thesis that had been building since the July payrolls miss. The Fed's attention now shifts to the inflation data due before that decision.
On the very same day the US posted a blowout jobs number, Canada's told the opposite story. Employment fell 41,700 in August, a sharp reversal against a forecast gain of 15,100, while July's already-strong print was revised even higher, to 75,100.
The unemployment rate held at 6.4%, unchanged, which softens the headline slightly — a falling participation rate absorbed some of the shock rather than it showing up entirely as more people unemployed. Even so, this is the mirror image of last month's US-style pattern: an unusually strong print followed by a sharp giveback, making it hard to read either month in isolation. Wednesday's Bank of Canada decision, which came two days before the jobs data, held rates at 2.25% for a seventh straight meeting, with Governor Tiff Macklem noting data had come in "largely in line" with the Bank's July forecast — a statement made before this reversal was known. The Bank explicitly flagged tariffs and Middle East-driven oil prices as upside risks to inflation, a notably less dovish lean than a simple "hold" suggests.
Wednesday's Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision went to script: the Official Cash Rate stayed at 2.75%, in line with forecasts, following July's hike to that level. The accompanying statement gave no major surprises, keeping the bank's recent hawkish-leaning tone intact after New Zealand's hot Q2 inflation print last month.
Australia's Q2 GDP, released the same morning, beat expectations: the economy grew 0.4% on the quarter against 0.3% forecast, adding a growth data point to sit alongside last week's hot inflation surprise. Taken together, the RBA now has both a resilient economy and above-forecast inflation to weigh at its 28–29 September meeting, keeping the case for a hike that opened up last week firmly on the table rather than fading.
Tuesday's eurozone flash inflation estimate told a mixed story. Headline CPI rose to 3.3% from 2.9%, exactly as forecast — a jump that lines up with the Spanish CPI surprise from the previous week rather than contradicting it. But core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, actually eased to 2.4% from 2.5%, coming in a touch below the 2.5% forecast — a reassuring sign that the headline jump is being driven by energy rather than a broader re-acceleration. Monday's German preliminary CPI reinforced the calmer underlying picture, rising just 0.2% on the month against 0.3% expected.
Switzerland's inflation data moved the other way: consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month, a sharp turnaround from -0.1% previously and well above the flat reading expected, though Swiss inflation remains very low by international standards. In the US, Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing PMI missed at 54.6 against 55.2 expected, while the survey's prices measure held elevated at 71.1 — still firmly in expansion territory (above 50), but a softer read after several strong months. JOLTS job openings also came in a touch light at 7.27 million against 7.33 million expected, extending the gradual cooling trend in labour demand seen through the summer, an interesting contrast against Friday's strong headline payrolls figure.
This recap summarises publicly reported economic data and central bank communications for the stated week. It is general information, not financial advice, and looks backwards only — it makes no predictions. Combine it with your own bias work (COT positioning, central bank direction, seasonal tendency) before drawing any conclusions.