A plain-language look at last week's key market events. What happened, why it mattered — no predictions, no noise. Updated every weekend.
Monday's third-quarter package from China's statistics bureau came in ahead of forecasts almost across the board. GDP grew 4.5% year-on-year against 4.4% expected (4.3% in the second quarter), and 1.2% on the quarter against 1.1% expected. Growth for the first nine months stands at 4.6%, inside the government's 4.5% to 5.0% target range. September's monthly numbers were firmer too, though the details show where the gains came from and where they did not.
For bias purposes, the headline numbers cleared the bar but the mix matters. The quarter leaned on exports and factory output while domestic demand and investment, particularly property, stayed weak. It also lands against last week's Chinese producer price reading of 5.0%, an oil-driven cost surge that has not yet shown up in consumer prices, which rose just 0.9%. Analysts commenting on the release noted that the modest beat reduced the case for aggressive stimulus.
The UK had the busiest data week of the group, and the readings pulled in opposite directions. Prices rose faster than forecast, but households became much more downbeat and shops sold less. Headline CPI rose to 3.5% in September from 3.1%, against 3.4% expected, the highest since October 2025. Core CPI rose to 2.8% from 2.6%, and services inflation climbed to 3.7% from 3.4%.
For bias purposes, the market took the inflation print seriously. With Bank Rate at 3.75%, rate futures priced above 90% odds of a quarter-point hike at the Bank of England's 5 November meeting, and Governor Bailey and MPC member Greene both warned this week that the energy shock was a risk to broader inflation. Against that, the household data points the other way, since falling confidence and weaker retail sales are the kind of evidence a central bank weighs against rising prices. Weak incomes, soft hiring signals and a confidence slump sit awkwardly beside 3.5% inflation.
Friday's flash PMIs showed a wide gap between economies. In the eurozone the composite index slipped to 51.9 from 53.1, its lowest in four months, with services at 51.7 against 52.6 expected and manufacturing at 52.4 against 52.7. The weakness was concentrated in France, where the composite fell to 48.4 from 51.1, putting it back in contraction. French services dropped to 48.4 against 50.7 expected, and S&P Global said French business confidence had hit its lowest since 2012 outside the pandemic, with strikes and unrest contributing.
Germany was more resilient: manufacturing rose to 54.2 against 53.5 expected, while services slipped to 51.7 against 52.5. Australia's services PMI was the sharpest move of the day, falling to 47.8 from 51.9 and into contraction, while its manufacturing reading edged up to 49.7. In the United States, manufacturing came in at 56.0 against 55.4 expected and services matched forecasts at 57.9, down from 58.8. Japan's manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 against 54.5 expected.
Across the eurozone, S&P Global noted manufacturing input costs were rising at their fastest pace since May on higher energy, fuel and transport costs, and services hiring was at a five-month low in growth. Sentiment surveys earlier in the week were soft as well: German ZEW economic sentiment fell to 28.1 against 30.2 expected (34.7 previously), eurozone ZEW dropped to 18.5 against 23.6, and eurozone consumer confidence slipped to -18 against -17 expected.
In the US housing market, Tuesday's data was weak. Housing starts fell to 1.22 million against 1.30 million forecast, pending home sales dropped 7.3% against a 0.6% fall expected, and Monday's NAHB builder index slipped to 29 from 32. Building permits held at 1.40 million. Friday's revised University of Michigan sentiment index was 48.0, above the 46.3 forecast, with year-ahead inflation expectations steady at 4.7%.
Japan's national core CPI (which excludes fresh food) rose to 2.1% in September from 1.7%, matching forecasts and putting inflation above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the first time in nine months. Higher oil costs linked to the Middle East conflict drove it, partly offset by government fuel subsidies. The measure that strips out fresh food and fuel rose to 2.4%, its fastest in six months. The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September. Japan's trade deficit was ¥0.70 trillion, narrower than the previous ¥0.80 trillion deficit but wider than the ¥0.26 trillion forecast.
On Thursday the Swiss National Bank published its summary of the discussions behind the September decision to hold the policy rate at 0%. The key line was that the Governing Board judged "an increased willingness to intervene is no longer necessary in the current environment". The franc had weakened about 3% in trade-weighted terms since June, helped by interest rate differentials and by low volatility that made it attractive as a funding currency for carry trades, with safe-haven demand limited. The SNB said it remains willing to intervene as needed. Swiss CPI was 0.8% in August, mostly from higher oil product prices, with core inflation (trimmed mean) at 0.6%. The board saw only limited signs of second-round effects, and also discussed whether artificial intelligence could raise structural unemployment, particularly in IT and finance, while saying it was too early to judge.
Canada's September CPI rose 3.1% on the year against 3.2% expected and 3.0% in August, with gasoline up 27.8%. Excluding gasoline, inflation eased to 2.2% from 2.4%, and the Bank of Canada's preferred core measures cooled: trimmed CPI eased to 1.8% and median CPI to 1.9%, both slightly below forecast, with common CPI at 2.4% against 2.6% expected. Monthly CPI rose 0.1% against 0.2% expected. BMO's Douglas Porter said the data shows the price rise is "not spreading far and wide beyond the gasoline pump." Producer-side prices ran hot on Thursday, with industrial product prices up 2.0% against 0.9% forecast and raw materials up 4.8% against 3.1%, and Friday's retail sales rebounded 1.2% against 1.3% expected after a 0.8% drop.
This recap summarises publicly reported economic data and central bank communications for the stated week. It is general information, not financial advice, and looks backwards only — it makes no predictions. Combine it with your own bias work (COT positioning, central bank direction, seasonal tendency) before drawing any conclusions.