Historical monthly price action bias calculated from real D1 data (2016–2026). Use as a directional confluence layer alongside COT data and central bank bias — not as a standalone entry signal.
⚠ This is not a buy or sell signal.
This dashboard shows historical tendencies only. A bullish bias does not mean the market will go up this month — it means it has gone up more often than not over the past 8–10 years. Always build your full bias from multiple layers before considering a trade.
▲▲ Bias Row
A quick visual summary of that month's historical tendency. ▲▲ Strong Bull means the month has closed bullish the large majority of the time. ▼▼ Strong Bear means the opposite. It is derived directly from the win rate — it is a summary, not a signal.
67% Win Rate
The percentage of years that month closed higher than it opened. A 70% win rate means 7 out of the last 10 years were bullish for that month. It says nothing about what this year will do — markets don't follow patterns on demand.
+112 Avg Move
The average pip movement across all years for that month. A positive number means the average close was above the average open. This includes both bullish and bearish years — a large positive average can still have losing years within it.
The golden rule: Seasonality tells you what has tended to happen historically. Use it as one layer of confluence — it should support a bias you've already begun to build from COT positioning and central bank direction. If seasonality conflicts with your other layers, reduce your size or wait. Never trade seasonality alone.
Monthly Price Action Heatmap
Bearish
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BullishGold outline = current month
Bullish Closing Rate by Month (%)
How to use this data: All bias calculations are derived from real D1 OHLC broker data. Monthly open/close is taken from the first and last trading day of each calendar month; the win rate is the percentage of years that month closed above its open. Average move is shown in pips (or USD/points for Gold, WTI and the S&P 500). Bias score is calculated directly from the win rate on a −2 (strong bearish) to +2 (strong bullish) scale. Seasonality is one input to combine with your COT positioning and central bank bias — when it aligns, that's confluence; when it conflicts, reduce size or wait for additional confirmation. Past seasonal tendencies do not guarantee future performance.
Data coverage varies slightly by instrument (8–10 full calendar years depending on export range); the S&P 500 currently covers 2017–2025 only pending a fresher export.