Federal Reserve (FOMC) — Meeting Minutes

Latest release • Dovish

Decision

  • Cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25% — first cut since Dec 2024.
  • Vote: 11–1 in favour; dissenter preferred 50 bps cut.
  • Tone: easing begins, but cautious and highly data-dependent.

Inflation & Outlook

  • Inflation remains “somewhat elevated.” 2025 projections above target, then drifting lower.
  • Labour market: unemployment has edged up; job gains slowed; wage growth moderating.
  • Growth: 2025 GDP projections slightly revised upward.
  • Dot plots: two more quarter-point cuts in 2025 expected if data support; modest cuts into 2026.

Analyst / Market Views

  • Move interpreted as dovish — easing has begun but strong caveats remain.
  • Markets cautious: inflation risk still high even as labour slack increases.
  • Pricing: markets expect more cuts in 2025, but uncertainty on timing/magnitude.

Trader Takeaways

  • Dovish bias, but Fed highly sensitive to CPI/PCE, labour data, wages, inflation expectations.
  • Watch: PCE inflation (core & headline), payrolls/unemployment, wages, energy/tariffs.
  • Risks: sticky inflation, sharper labour softening, external shocks (commodities, supply chains, policy).
  • Upside: easing could boost sentiment if softness builds.
Official Sources: Summary of Economic Projections (Fed) — Sept 17, 2025 FOMC Statement — Sept 17, 2025
Next Meeting:

October 28–29, 2025 — markets expect another ~25 bps cut, depending on inflation and labour data.

This is general information only and not financial advice. Please consult a licensed professional for personal guidance.