European Central Bank — Governing Council Decision

Decision (Sep 11, 2025)

• Held the three key interest rates: deposit facility at 2.00%, MRO at 2.15%, marginal lending at 2.40%.
• Tone: paused but cautious — policy is data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting.
• Summary of deliberations: scheduled for Sep 26, 2025.

Inflation & Outlook (from statement / projections)

• HICP inflation: 2.1% (2025), 1.7% (2026), 1.9% (2027).
• Core inflation: 2.4% (2025), 1.9% (2026), 1.8% (2027).
• Growth: GDP revised up to ~1.2% (2025), 1.0% (2026), 1.3% (2027).
• Labour market: Unemployment ~6.2% (July); wage growth moderating at +3.9% YoY (Q2).
• Risks: energy/wage/FX upside risks vs global/credit risks.

Policy Bias

Overall: Neutral with a hawkish tilt — tone cautious, inflation still above 2% into 2026.

Analyst / Market Views

• Theme: Markets see cautious hold, risks tilted to hawkish side.
• Drivers: Sticky core inflation, upward GDP revisions, risks from wages and energy prices.

Trader Takeaways

• Front end: Markets expect limited easing — hawkish repricing possible.
• EUR: Data-sensitive; upside if inflation remains sticky.
• Watch: Sep 26 deliberations, upcoming CPI, wage data, and Q3 growth numbers.