Swiss National Bank — Monetary Policy Assessment

Decision (Jun 19, 2025)

• Cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 0.00%.
• Sixth consecutive cut since March 2024.
• Tone: easing bias; SNB noted risks of moving below zero but kept the door open if required.

Inflation & Outlook

• Headline CPI: −0.1% (May 2025).
• Forecasts: 0.2% (2025), 0.5% (2026), 0.7% (2027).
• Growth outlook: modest; Q1 2025 strong due to export timing but momentum expected to weaken.
• Unemployment: expected to rise slightly, signalling softer labour market.
• FX: SNB remains ready to intervene against franc strength.

Analyst / Market Views

• Stance: dovish — move toward zero lower bound, with risk of further easing.
• Path: negative rates possible but not preferred; only if inflation weakens further.
• Reaction: CHF firm, imported inflation pressures fell; yields shifted lower.

Trader Takeaways

• Dovish bias entrenched; policy at effective lower bound.
• Watch: inflation prints (headline & core), franc strength, trade flows, deflation risk.
• Risks: upside risk = deflation, weak demand, CHF strength; downside = inflation rebound, negative rate side-effects.

Next Meeting

• Sep 25, 2025 — expected hold at 0.00% unless inflation falls further.