Bias Layer 01 · CFTC Data · Updated Weekly

COT Positioning

Track large speculator positioning in the futures market. When speculators are heavily net long or short a currency, it reveals directional bias. Use this as your first bias layer before consulting central bank and seasonality data.

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Net Position

The difference between large speculator long contracts and short contracts. A positive net = speculators are net long (bullish). A negative net = speculators are net short (bearish). The size of the number indicates conviction.

Week Change

How much the net position changed from the previous week. A positive change means speculators added to longs or reduced shorts — increasing bullish exposure. This momentum signal is often more important than the absolute level.

The Bias

Derived from the net position. Bullish = speculators are net long. Bearish = net short. Neutral = near zero. Extremes (very large net positions) can signal reversal risk — too many traders on one side.

How to use it: COT data has a 3-day lag — released Friday, reflects Tuesday positions. It is a medium-term sentiment indicator, not a short-term signal. Use it as your first bias layer. When COT aligns with central bank direction and seasonality, confluence is strong. When it conflicts, reduce size or wait.

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Large Speculator Positioning
Data source: CFTC Commitments of Traders — Legacy Futures Only report. Published weekly, reflects positions as of the previous Tuesday. Large speculators = non-commercial traders. This data is for informational and educational purposes only — not investment advice. Past positioning does not guarantee future price movement.